Ever
since U.S. forces invaded Iraq and toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003, the
U.S. government has worried that Iraq would splinter into three states —
each representing the feuding religious and ethnic factions the
dictator held together through his iron rule.
It may no longer be necessary to worry that Iraq will break apart. In many ways, it already has.
The
radical Islamic State that seized a swath of western and central Iraq
last month effectively left the nation in three pieces, government
officials and analysts say.
The United States worries that a
fractured Iraq could lead to a failed state, allowing the radical
Islamists to establish a stronghold from which they can export terrorism
to other parts of the region and world.
Ryan Crocker, who served
as U.S. ambassador to Iraq from 2007 to 2009, described the divisions as
"Shiastan," "Jihadistan" and Kurdistan. The references are to the
majority Shiite Muslims, who run the national government in Baghdad; the
insurgent Sunni Muslim jihadists who make up the Islamic State; and the
ethnic Kurds, who have long presided over an oil-rich, semiautonomous
enclave in the north
"In a sense, it's apocalypse now," Crocker said.
"Iraq
is not one Iraq anymore," Fuad Hussein, chief of staff to Kurdistan
Regional Government President Massoud Barzani, said at the Washington
Institute for Near East Policy during a recent U.S. visit.
The
challenge for Washington is determining whether — and how — the country
can be pieced back together. The Obama administration says Iraq must
stay united if it is to take back the country from the radical
Islamists.
Ironically, Joe Biden had argued as a U.S. senator in
2006, when Iraq was in the throes of sectarian violence, that the
country be divided into three autonomous regions with a weak central
government . His idea never gained traction, and the administration in
which he serves as vice president argues the opposite view.
"The
strongest single blunt to that threat (division) would be a strong
capable federal government in Iraq that is actually able to exert
control and influence to push back on that threat," Elissa Slotkin, a
top Pentagon official, testified to Congress recently.
Politicians
in Baghdad are haggling over formation of a unity government that can
fulfill the mission outlined by Slotkin. By custom, the top three jobs
are parceled out to the three factions.
Last
week, Kurdish politician Fouad Massoum was named the new president of
Iraq by Parliament. His selection followed lawmakers' election of a
Sunni, Salim al-Jabouri, as speaker of Parliament.
Lawmakers have
a long way to go before creating a broad government that would lessen
tensions among the Kurds, Sunnis and Shiites. Prime Minister Nouri
al-Maliki, a Shiite, has been widely criticized within his country and
the USA for limiting Sunni participation in his government and
empowering Shiite militias that have targeted Sunnis during his
eight-year rule. Al-Maliki is fighting to stay in office for a new
four-year term.
One key to holding Iraq together is
convincing the Kurds, who have long sought an independent state, to
remain part of the central government. The Obama administration is trying to convince Kurdish leaders to remain part of Iraq.
"Without
the Kurds, you're going to have a struggle with all Sunni Arabs against
an Iranian-backed Shiite rump state," said James Jeffrey, a former U.S.
ambassador to Iraq.
The Kurds have seized on the offensive by the
radical Sunnis to further assert their independence. Kurdish forces
have occupied territory abandoned by Iraq's army, attempted to sell oil
without Baghdad's approval and announced plans for a referendum on
independence.
"Division is the only solution, provided that this
division should be consensual," said Barzo Ibrahim, a civil engineer in
Irbil, in Kurdistan. "This is the most difficult part of the task."
The
Kurds have the best chance of survival should they break away from
Iraq's central government. They have created an oasis of political
stability in the north, fueled by their own oil reserves and protected
by one of the most disciplined fighting forces in the region, the peshmerga.
The
Kurds have used the crisis to expand their control over oil-rich Kirkuk
in the north by taking over positions from Iraq's army when it
retreated in the face of attacks from Islamic militants. It's not clear
whether the Kurds will withdraw should the crisis subside.
"They
are making the most of the current tactical situation," said Mark
Kimmit, a retired Army brigadier general and former State Department
official with extensive experience in Iraq.
"They achieved on the
ground what they were unable to achieve politically, by moving into
positions abandoned by the Iraqi security forces," he said.
The
Kurdish regional government has begun pumping oil from the Kirkuk field
into its own network, so it can sell it independently through its
pipeline into Turkey, according to the Iraq Oil Report, which covers the
industry. Baghdad considers the move illegal.
The Kurds have said
Iraq's central government hasn't fulfilled its commitment to support
the regional government's budget, leaving the government with no choice
but to sell its own oil.
Baghdad still has control over the bulk
of Iraq's oil wealth. The Kurdish region produces about 220,000 barrels
per day, compared with about 2.6 million in the Shiite south.
The
Sunnis, whose power center is in western Iraq, have little in the way of
resources to fall back on. Their anger against al-Maliki's
Shiite-dominated government has driven many to support the Islamic
State.
While the government's forces are in disarray, al-Maliki
has turned again to Shiite militias to help provide security, further
heightening sectarian tensions.
Iraq has long had sectarian
clashes and divisions. The Sunni minority held power for centuries until
the United States ousted Saddam, a Sunni. Iraq's mostly Sunni Baath
Party, which ruled Iraq for decades, ruthlessly suppressed Shiites and
Kurds.
Some Iraqis, such as Omar Mohammed, a dentist in Diyala in
eastern Iraq, see a splintered Iraq as the only solution after so many
episodes of sectarian bloodshed.
"I would accept any solution to stop the bloodshed," he said, "even if it was a confederation or division."
Contributing: Gilgamesh Nabeel, Ammar Al Shamary and John Dyer in Baghdad and Sumi Somaskanda from Berlin
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