This is one of those scenarios that will not play out in a way that
will provide either the USA or China much satisfaction.
First off there is nothing whatsoever for either China or the US to win
where winning means taking on the task of restoring the country to economic
health. It makes far more sense to both
countries to push the problem onto the shoulders of the South Koreans who have
historical reasons to do so just as West Germany had historical reasons to take
on East Germany.
What China wants is the peaceful reuniting of Taiwan to China in a
satisfactory manner and what the South Koreans want is the peaceful reuniting
of the north with the south. I think
that both topics need to be put on the table and deliberately linked
together. Both brides are completely
intransigent and for excellent reasons.
Yet China can give to get as can the USA. Quite bluntly, the intransigence is possible
because of the historic diplomatic standoff exploited by both North Korea and
Taiwan. China and the USA can easily
signal that a new regime is in place in terms of diplomacy.
Importantly, I do think that the Taiwanese and the North Koreans at the
level of their people want to rejoin the political life of their respective
partners but on their own terms.
In the end, the USA and China can provide necessary guarantees to
grease the way and likely little else. China will restore its natural sphere of
influence and actually end the last vestiges of the Cold War. The US can lock in security arrangements for
the Pacific at the same time in which China can honorably participate. Remaining bilateral issues can be isolated
and resolved.
China, between a rocket and
a hard place on North Korea
By Benjamin Kang
Lim | Reuters – 5 hours ago
A soldier stands guard in
front of the Unha-3 (Milky Way 3) rocket sitting on a launch …
BEIJING (Reuters) - A joke
circulating among officials in Beijing pretty much underlines the bind China is
in over North Korea's plans to send a satellite into space.
North Korea's young ruler Kim
Jong-un phones a Chinese leader to tell him about timing of the planned rocket
launch. "When will it be?" asks the Chinese leader.
Kim replies: "Ten, nine,
eight, seven, six, five, four..."
Beijing has received more
notice than that - the launch is likely later this week - but a source close to
China's top leadership and a Western diplomat have both said it nevertheless
has little influence over Pyongyang and is in no position to block the event.
The United States, which has
said the launch will give the unpredictable state an opportunity to test
ballistic missile technology, wants Beijing to use its influence to halt the
lift-off.
"China has pressured
North Korea to abandon (the launch) because it adds new variables and gives the
United States an excuse to return to Asia," the source with ties to the
leadership told Reuters, requesting anonymity to avoid repercussions.
"China does not want to
see this because Beijing and Shanghai are within range" of North Korean
ballistic missiles, he said, referring to China's political and financial
capitals and providing further evidence that Beijing does not have fully warm
and friendly ties with its unpredictable neighbor.
Critics however are convinced
China, the main provider of food and energy aid to its isolated neighbor, could
do more to force North Korea to scrap the launch.
Last month U.S. President
Barack Obama urged China to use its influence over North Korea instead of
"turning a blind eye", and warned of tighter sanctions if the
reclusive state presses ahead with the launch.
On Monday, U.S. State
Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said there were signs that North Korea
may also be preparing for a nuclear test, its third.
"We believe in particular
that China joins us in its interest in seeing a denuclearized Korean peninsula,
and we are continuing to encourage China in particular to act more effectively
in that interest" she said.
Nuland told reporters a third
North Korean nuclear test "would be equally bad if not worse" than
the rocket launch.
It would be in the interests
of both China and North Korea at this juncture to say Beijing has little
influence over Pyongyang.
But the countries have
maintained warm relations despite tensions in recent years. Before his death
last year, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il visited China four times between May
2010 and August 2011. His son Kim Jong-un, who is now leader of the autocratic
state, is believed to have accompanied him on at least one of this trips.
The rocket that North Korea
has readied for launch from a forested valley in its remote northwest will
showcase its ability to fire a missile capable of hitting the continental
United States.
Pyongyang insists the weather
satellite launch will be a milestone to mark the 100th birth anniversary of Kim
Jong-un's grandfather, North Korea's founder Kim Il-sung, and backing down now would
be seen as sign of weakness at home. Nonetheless, Washington and Seoul suspect
it is a ballistic missile test.
"They can't launch the
thing without using ballistic missile technology which is precluded by U.N.
Security Council Resolution 1874," said Nuland, the U.S. spokeswoman.
"So regardless of what they say about it, it's still a violation."
But sending rockets skyward to
mark momentous events is a tradition shared by the Communist leaders of both
China and North Korea. Having launched satellites in 1982 and 1987 to mark the
death anniversary of Mao Zedong and in 1992, 1997, 2002 and 2007 to coincide
with Communist Party congresses, China is finding it difficult to convince
North Korea to back down.
COMING-OUT PARTY
Pyongyang's move, analysts say,
is also aimed at further consolidating the power of Kim Jong-un, believed to be
in his late 20s, who became the third member of his family to rule North Korea
after his father's death last December.
"If Kim No. 3 requires a
symbol of his authority, that rocket launch might be that symbol tied to the
legitimacy of the (ruling) Korean Workers' Party," the Western diplomat
said.
That authority could be
challenged if China were to pressure Pyongyang over the rocket launch at this
juncture. And Beijing does not want any instability that could arise from a
weakened Kim Jong-un.
But the real issue may China's
willingness to exercise influence rather than its ability to do so.
"The question is not if
China has or doesn't have leverage to pressure Pyongyang. The question is
whether it wants to exercise that pressure," South Korean political
commentator Shim Jae Hoon said. "Any sign of displeasure shown by China at
this time will not fail to have an impact on Kim Jong-un."
And in the end, China sees
some value in the North Korean regime as a buffer against South Korea-U.S.
military alliance.
"The worst case scenario
troubling Beijing is the prospect of a democratic, capitalist South Korea
reunifying the whole peninsula. China thinks this will bring U.S. military
presence close to its border," Shim said.
China is caught between a rock
and a hard place.
"It's troublesome. North
Korea is difficult to control. We have no choice but to help them" by
continuing to provide aid, the source with leadership ties said, adding that
squeezing Beijing's food and energy lifeline to Pyongyang could lead to an
exodus of North Korean refugees destabilizing China's northeast.
China's relationship with
North Korea was once characterized to be "as close as lips and teeth"
after they fought side-by-side against the United States and South Korea during
the 1950-53 Korean War. But the two strayed apart after Beijing flirted with
capitalist-style reforms -- seen by Pyongyang as a betrayal -- and recognized
Seoul in 1992.
Deng Xiaoping, China's late
leader, once quipped that dynastic succession is not a Communist tradition,
riling Kim Jong-il who was poised to take over from his father, sources
familiar with China's foreign policy said.
China takes great pride in
transforming itself into an economic powerhouse from a backwater after just
three decades of reform and is growing increasingly impatient with what it sees
as an incompetent North Korean leadership which cannot feed its own people, the
sources said.
"Our relationship with
North Korea is no longer 'If the lips are gone, the teeth will be cold',"
a second source with leadership ties said, quoting a Chinese idiom.
"Nowadays, the teeth keep biting the lips, and it's hurting."
(Editing by Raju
Gopalakrishnan and Don Durfee)
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