This new insight in weather
interpretation addresses the causation of our most surprising weather events
that were utterly missed on the way in.
I will never be the full answer but
it certainly is a great improvement and we may learn that in practice that it
does consistently nail the problem events.
That alone will be a great confidence booster to users of the service.
It is surprising that the
original protocol has stood the test of time for so many years. We are certainly getting something right.
Taking a fresh look at the weather
by Staff Writers
With groundbreaking research, Dr David Schultz, from The University of Manchester
Writing in the journal Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
Dr Schultz, along with his colleague Professor Geraint Vaughan, has worked out
that the traditional model for how low pressure systems evolve is deeply
flawed.
The model, used since the 1920s and devised by Norwegian
meteorologists, is that when a storm occludes (evolves), it will automatically
begin to weaken and pose little danger of severe weather.
Instead, some of the biggest storms in
the UK
However, argues Dr Schultz, this is not the case - occluded storms may
well contain strong winds and regions of heavy precipitation.
Naturally, many in the public recognize that. The Great Storm of
October 1987 and the Burns' Day storm of January 1990 were both clear
reminders: occluded, but still deadly. Dr Schultz's new model addresses these
weaknesses with the Norwegian model because the prior belief that occluded
storms were weak could lead to poorly-informed predictions or forecasts.
Dr Schultz, from the University's School of Earth, Atmospheric and
Environmental Sciences, claims they now know that the deepening of a low
pressure system is not dependent on when a cyclone occludes.
Specifically, the new model is called 'wrap up', to emphasize that the
wind around the occluding cyclone wraps up the low pressure system into an
anticlockwise-spiralling cloud pattern.
Dr Schultz said: "With this new interpretation of the occlusion
process we can explain why not all low pressure systems occlude - the winds are
not strong enough to wrap up the storm.
"The Norwegian model of low pressure systems served us well for
many years, but it's time to move on.
"This new model is better than the Norwegian model at explaining
the available observations of the structure and evolution of occluded low
pressure systems."
Dr Schultz argues that how we teach about low pressure systems is
wrong, and that textbooks, public information guides and models will need to be
radically updated to ensure the next generation of meteorologists, as well as
the public, are in possession of all the facts.
He added: "All books from postgraduate-level textbooks to basic
weather books for the public need to be rewritten to convey the correct
understanding. What we teach students in school needs to be changed. And
forecasters need to be retrained to have this latest information."
Another result of Dr Schultz's research is a better explanation for the
observed structure of storms. Previously, meteorologists believed that occluded
cyclones and their associated fronts could tilt eastward with height or tilt
westward with height, roughly in equal measure.
This new research demonstrates that westward-tilting occluded fronts
are rare and provides an explanation for why. Dr Schultz added: "I hope
that this model will help people understand the particular weather conditions
associated with these potentially hazardous storms. Yet, this research shows
how much more remains for us to learn about the weather around us."
No comments:
Post a Comment