Sarah Palin is old enough and experienced
enough to have a mature voice as a writer and thinker on present day affairs of
state. Of course, any published item
will be polished to death, unlike my scribblings in this somewhat personal
intellectual daybook. And these items do
reflect her opinions and direction and it is pretty well as good as we could reasonably
expect.
The GOP problem is that a lot of folks
think that they own the rarified heights of the party’s influence. Sarah Palin is a party crasher who has
strategically allied herself with the tea party and has enabled and assisted
the tea party in setting the GOP agenda.
However loyal to the GOP you may be, your own fantasies of influence are
naturally diminished in the wake of a tyro who is not too famous for listening
to the good old boys.
The GOP is been reinvented in the form of
Sarah Palin’s populous tea party. We
will soon learn if this is a winning strategy, but the only comparable that I can
think of is Teddy Roosevelt who was the male version of Sarah. I seriously do not think that anyone can stop
her from grabbing the GOP nomination.
As I posted two years ago, the media has thrown
every possible stone at her to the point that they are completely out of
ammunition. This has served to harden
her support and make everyone else form an opinion on her prematurely. She is now through reality shows, shooting
game, and opinion pieces confounding those opinions made in haste.
She has reached that point in the media
universe were she has become coated with Teflon. It all slides off now.
The GOP has a great populist leader who is
seen to be truly one of the people and seen to be an American action
figure. Obama is in deep trouble because
his record is a litany of failure to take any action when it was called
for. Palin will be able to beat him with
this record.
Why
the GOP Fears Sarah Palin
2010 DECEMBER 13
One way or the other, Sarah Palin will have
the biggest impact on the GOP’s chances to win the presidency in 2012. Her recent editorial in the Wall
Street Journal supporting Rep. Paul Ryan’s economic deficit
reduction and economic growth plan is simply her latest in a series
of comments on the important issues for America
The two areas where the Federal
Government can do the most damage domestically are: 1) the fiscal issues
of tax and spending policy, i.e., too much of both; and, 2) regulatory
nihilism—-in particular relating to the ad hoc restriction of property rights
unilaterally by the executive branch. This happens when the Government
implements and interprets vaguely written laws with “unintended” consequences.
Examples include the recentChrysler and GM bailouts, unfunded mandates of
all kinds; defining CO2 as a pollutant; the already unchecked power of the EPA
overall; and the upcoming Big Kahuna, “Obamacare”.
Ryan’s proposal, A Roadmap for America’s
Future, addresses the first issue most directly and parts of the second issue
indirectly (for example, his proposals to change Obamacare). I think his plan is
a good plan. It is good primarily because it exists at all. If it were up
to me the plan would be more simple. About 2/3rds of the forward
federal budget are entitlements. Basically, the way our entitlement system works is
as follows. It taxes 1 dollar from one group of people and promises 2 dollars
to another group of people. All of us are in both groups, although at different
times in our lives and for different forms of entitlements.
This is not hyperbole, just a simple statement
of what the Government does in fact. The ratio of 1 to 2 may be different, but
you get the point. What does this mean? It means as a nation we are less
wealthy than our officialbalance sheet says we are. Think of your own
assets and liabilities. If you are like me there is one liability you ignore,
the debt of the federal (and state) government, which can only be
paid with your taxes, (which is what politics is about, i.e., “who gets and who
pays?”). On average, a family of four owes about $140,000 using the most
favorable accounting in federal debt. It is really a multiple of
that when one factors in the growth path of entitlements, as they are growing
far faster than our economy can support.
Any individual today can go on the Social
Security website and it will actually show you your personal social
security account as if it were a brokerage statement. But unlike
a brokerage statement, there are no assets—just a promise to pay.
What they will not show you are your personal liabilities owed to the
government, because we pretend individuals don’t owe it. If it were there
honestly, you would find you owe more money than you will receive, if we had
actual transparency. Our entitlement system is not a mere transfer payment system,
which by comparison would be almost harmless; it is a true Ponzi scheme, and
therefore not sustainable. All economists know this of course. I honestly
believe most politicians really do not understand this.
Ryan’s proposal at least transparently addresses
the problem of entitlements for all to see. Yet it sits out there in no man’s
land within the GOP, with no visible alternative in sight. Entitlements are
called the third rail in politics for a reason. I believe the reason the GOP
fears this issue, as all past politicians have, is there is genuine concern
that the so called tea party movement, which put the GOP back in power, is not
really the vanguard of a fiscal restoration movement. Rather, they fear it is a
more traditional “don’t gourd my Ox” movement. Maybe it is; if so then we
really are at the beginning of the end for the American Empire.
Next: What does it mean that Palin is the first 2012 hopeful to endorse a
specific plan?
Sarah Palin is the first presidential “hopeful” to come
out aggressively in support of Ryan, while recognizing it is not a “perfect plan”.
Implicitly and explicitly, therefore, she is the first candidate to support an
actual existingplan to reduce entitlements in exchange for a more free market based savings and healthcare system.
This is different than supporting a non-existent or incoherent plan spouting
platitudes. This is significant in my opinion. The GOP candidate that can carry
this message forward without alienating the people, who must elect them, will have achieved a
historically significant accomplishment. It is very hard to be the bearer of
bad news such as; “we are not taking anything away from you because you already
don’t have it. Rather, we are creating a system where your savings and health care consumption are not empty promises”. I
do not pretend this is politically easy. But, as a nation, we need to do this.
Of course, as has been obvious for 2 years, the GOP has
no respect for Palin. It even borders on hate or disdain. They disdain her
because they believe she won a lotto ticket when McCain put her in the
spotlight, (which she did). They hate her because she is popular and
uncontrollable, also true. They disdain her because they believe she is vain
and self absorbed —I disagree—but certainly no more so than other candidates.
They hate her because they think she is stupid. This implies those who say so
are smart. To quote Steely Dan from “Reelin’ in the Years”—“you’ve
been telling me you were a genius since you were seventeen, and all this time
I’ve known you, I still don’t know what you mean”. This obsession
with “smart” and politics is the
ultimate misunderstood red herring. Finally, and most of all, they hate her
because they think she will lose—which only an election can determine.
Consequently, and most recently, we see the spectacle of
my home state (and town) governor, Chris Christie, yukkin’ it up with Jimmy
Fallon on the dopiness which is Palin. I like Christie a lot, but now less so.
We see the shocking gracelessness of Big Barb Bush wishing Palin would just go
back to Alaska Alaska
As Palin said after the disgraceful comments of Christie
and Ms. Bush, “let’s have the competitive process determine who will be both
candidate and president”. I believe the person who will be chosen for both is
the one who can, among other issues, best articulate our fiscal problems and
actual solutions, in a way which persuadespeople truthfully. Such a person also has the
potential to be an historic figure. I don’t know if this person is Palin or
not, nor does she. But her support of Ryan’s plan,
despite its weaknesses, is a step in the right direction.
So far, Jumpin’ Joe Biden said it best, even if partially
in jest; “It is a mistake to underestimate Sarah Palin”.
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