This is as bad as it gets. Please remember Katrina. Remember that Sacramento was inundated during the nineteenth century. Remember that this dam needs to do its job and now that is seriously compromised.
Dave, Thank you so much for your reports!
Dear Mr. Hodges,
I have been reading and listening to your accounts about the very serious situation involving the very serious situation here at the Oroville Dam.
First, the two spillways are nearly useless in terms of providing relief to the dam. The dam is totally on its own and there is at the present moment NOTHING that can be done to improve this situation.
As falsely advertised we have not been able to bring the water levels down 50 feet which has been our goal since the onset. I would bet that this dam is going to fail. I am not sure that it will fail in the face of the upcoming storms. Over time, this dam will fail and I think this dam will do so before end of winter.
I have witnessed many heated debates about the potential need to evacuate the people who would be in the path of the oncoming waters should the dam fail. I can tell you there are two major camps. The locals think an evacuation is needed for at least 10 days so we can see how the dam is going to react to the upcoming storms. Brown’s people from the Water Dept. disagree and think that we are overreacting. It is clear to us that the state organizations are protecting Brown’s ass and the safety of the people be damned.
Brown’s people, are replacing the locals and are making decisions which should be reserved for the local sheriff to make based on the reports we provide to him. Brown’s people are now in the way of public safety.
If this dam breaks, there will be towns that will disappear and they will not come back.
I have seen three projections which I think we should be preparing for since so many lives are at risk. If the dam breaks, the water would reach between 35 to 50 feet high coming out of the dam. I have seen a computer scenario which states that the water would reach Sacramento in under two hours. That is not enough time to evacuate. This has elements of the perfect storm because of the condition of the flood control ielements in Sacramento which is a disaster.
We should have expanded the evacuation area and it should have included Sacramento. I cannot project the loss of life but I think your figures represent the worst case scenario but they are realistic.
Please do not publish my name or email. Call me Ben. I will have more to say if you keep my name out of your reports.
217 AM Pacific