Monday, January 4, 2016

Revisiting when China's economy will pass the USA


Let us not forget that China is continuing to grow.  If anything slower growth happens to be welcome as it polices excesses.  This era will last a long time but it also entails a half billion top third becoming a two thirds top echelon.  This must take about twenty more years and a solid three to four fold increase in the general economy.

All this is possible.  The slow down is then a welcome consolidation on our part as well.  I would like to see faster growth in India as well to play catch up.

Long term do remember that everyone will be part of an established middle class.  I expect a glabal majority no later than 2050.

Revisiting when China's economy will pass the USA

I noted in 2011, the World Bank/IMF figures for PPP were wrong based upon 2005 numbers that did not properly survey the rural areas. The World Bank did adjust PPP and increased China PPP by about 25%. China thus officially passed the USA in GDP on a PPP basis.

In 2011, I had indicated that China would pass USA on a nominal basis by 2019. However, China's growth has slowed more and the currency has been weakened relative to the US dollar. It was 6.05 to 1 US dollar at the end of 2013 and beginning of 2014. At the end of 2015, the yuan is 6.5 to 1 US dollar. China surpassing on a nominal basis is now delayed until 2022-2027.
China's GDP at the end of 2011 (including Hong Kong and Macau) was $7.8 trillion.
At the end of 2014, China's economy was 63.65 trillion yuan. This was not including Hong Kong and Macau. 
China's GDP growth slowed in Q3 2015. China's economy posted a 6.9-percent growth year on year in the third quarter of 2015, lower than 7 percent in the first half of the year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
In the first three quarters of the year, GDP hit 48.78 trillion yuan (7.68 trillion U.S. dollars), up 6.9 percent year on year, according to the NBS. China should thus have about 70 trillion yuan GDP for 2015. 
This will be about 10.7 trillion US $. Add in Hong Kong and Macua and it is about $11 trillion.
China has a hidden economy that is about another 10-15% of the economy. Hidden / unreported income is more common in China than in the USA.
Urbanization of about 1% per year shifts people over time from rural per capita GDP that is 3 times less than in the cities. Even if it takes ten or 20 years to shift people to the higher level. That is a steady stream that adds up to 3% per year of extra GDP growth.
China is willing to massively alter infrastructure and cities which can boost per capita GDP. Building cities to higher densities and increasing the connection of populations in groups of cities have per capita GDP boosting effects.
China's willingness to use high speed rail to connect cities and to build skyscrapers to up density have GDP and GDP per capita boosting effects. 
The other big determinant of future GDP is how effectively education levels and population skill levels can be raised.
Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin are all over the US$12,000 per capita level as of the end of 2011. The other provinces should clear the US$12,000 per capita levels 1 to 2 years after they clear the US$10,000 per capita levels.
In 2011, I predicted that by 2015, China should have provinces with a combined population of about 500 million with per capita GDP over US$12,000. I am projecting all of China to have a per capita GDP of about $9000-10000 in 2010 US dollars in 2015. This will now happen in 2017 for the $9000 per capita in 2010 US dollars. China is passing the per capita nominal GDP of Mexico in 2017.
Beijing announced a target of US$20,000 per capita GDP by 2017 (for the city of Beijing).
China has gone to a 2 child policy. This will add 3 to 5 million children each year to the 16 million under a 1 child policy. China will completely lift all population controls soon to stabilize the 2050 workforce levels.
China will be able to sustain more levels of investment growth by building out the rail and energy and port infrastructure of other countries. 
This will be the one road one belt policy. This already has agreements with Russia, South East Asian Countries, Turkey and other countries.

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