Thursday, January 14, 2016

Republican Demographic Problems Aren't Just for the Future Anymore

Sounds good, but reflects too much successful polarizing by a definite minority with no where else to go.  This tends to happen when the other side dominates for a while.

 The real truth is that a solid two third sits firmly in the middle to see who they can really support.  The wings, left or right must then follow along or be left out.

Once you see it that way, it becomes clear that it usually is a fifty fifty split.  The wings are not strong enough to make a serious difference at all except negatively and they are not going to shift their support.

Today the so called conservative Democrats are supporting Trump.  This is nightmare for Hilary.

Republican Demographic Problems Aren't Just for the Future Anymore

—By Kevin Drum


Here's an interesting poll analysis from Reuters. It shows demographic shifts since the 2012 elections, and it turns out that most groups are pretty stable. There are three exceptions. On the plus side for conservatives, Jews have become slightly more Republican. But on the minus side, Hispanics and young whites have become significantly more Democratic.

Hispanics are no surprise. Republicans have spent the past three years loudly opposing comprehensive immigration reform and playing "can you top this?" when it comes to border security. Then along came Donald Trump, with his murderers and rapists and his big, beautiful wall. The only surprise here is Hispanics haven't moved further away from the Republican Party.

But it's certainly odd that Republicans are losing both Hispanics and young whites. Or maybe not. Older whites are generally attracted to traditional conservative values and the vague racial dog whistles that Republicans specialize in. But younger whites are probably turned off by social troglodytism—especially anti-gay animus—and don't respond to the dog whistles one way or another. So they're leaving.

I guess it's time for yet another Republican post mortem that they can then proceed to ignore. Why wait until after the election, after all?

No comments: