Well maybe but i am not particularly sure of all that. The real problem today is that oil has discounted by around sixty percent. Present global contraction prevent that price from seriously recovering so we are stuck with $30 to $35 oil. Since Oil presents around twelve percent of the economy, the global economy is now contracting to this new normal.
What i do predict is that by about mid 2017, it will also become common knowledge that Second Tier energy production will soon replace all oil energy. It will take that long for us to put vehicles on the road as demonstrators. This will then lead to a general abandonment of oil. I expect prices to continue at these present levels while this great unwinding takes place. This will allow the transition to be somewhat gradual. However, gradual will be about ten percent per year.
Right now we are in a serious global rescission and the pain is starting to go around..
By Ron Holland
January 15, 2016
“With all of the quick fixes in our nation’s economy, Americans may soon have to pay a heavy price. Holland expects that when the crash, which he refers to in his latest report as the “Greenspan Crash,”occurs, the initial market pullback for the Dow will be 25 percent. A worst-case scenario, according to Holland, could resemble that of what happened in Japan last year with the Dow possibly dipping as low as50-60 percent.” – Ron Holland, 1/20/1999
The last time Ron Holland a noted investment expert, writer and former president of a broker/dealer firm licensed for business in 47 states gave a major stock market crash warning was 17 years ago. On January 20, 1999 Ron warned “Is the big crash coming” in an article on World Net Daily and his “Get Ready for the Greenspan Crash” and Dot.com bubble warning then is still online today here.
Well I’m Ron Holland and here I am 17 years later and I fear it is time for another crash warning. While markets are oversold and we could rally for a few days and any near-term rallies could be quite dramatic on the upside. Still longer term I question the high valuations of global stock markets and the manipulated explosive strength of the US dollar. The world is in recession, oil will temporarily go lower as will the US dollar and no one knows what will happen in China or with the tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Now in looking back, I was actually not pessimistic enough in my warning back in 1999 as the Dot.Com heavy NASDAQ actually lost 78.4% falling from 5132.52 in March 2000 to 1108.49 in October 2002. But get ready as here we go again but I hope I’m wrong.
But this time around, the global market crash is not even the fault of the corrupt and incompetent Federal Reserve System or the Wall Street scam artists but rather the blame falls squarely on the joint shoulders of the Obama Administration and the GOP foreign policy advisors. Their failed geopolitical efforts to destroy the (oil and gas based) Russian economy following our overthrow of the legitimate government in the Ukraine is the root cause of both the oil price collapse and the global stock market crash. There is no question that the wars in Syria and Iraq are a direct result of a failing American foreign policy and attempt to maintain the US petrodollar system while trying to destroy the energy focused Russian economy.
The results have been horrific and staggering with certainly some Russian economic pain but Canada our wonderful friend and ally to the north and the US oil patch have been decimated by the collapse in oil and gas prices brought about by our Washington politicians and the corrupt Saudi leadership. Note for the record, I’m a proud American but I have permanent residency in Canada and love the country.
Today thanks to the failed Washington foreign policy of economic desolation in both Iraq and Syria, Europe is being invaded by immigrants from war torn Iraq, Syria and other Middle Eastern nations destroyed by war, military efforts and economic actions. Is this an unexpected blowback and were our political leaders totally ignorant of the future results of their actions? I don’t have a clue but I believe the birth and growth of ISIS is a direct result of a failed American foreign policy and I fear the entire world may pay a heavy economic price for Washington incompetence.
Forget the false commentary from the establishment cable networks including Fox News as our attempt to bring down the current government of Syria was all about a gas pipeline route from Qatar to Europe. This was and is a foreign policy designed to reduce European dependence on Russian gas and to weaken the Russian economy and nothing more.
President Putin’s military actions to defend Syria from ISIS invasion was a game changer for the survival of Syria, continued Russian gas exports to Europe and together with Washington policies in the Middle East have guaranteed the ultimate death of the Petrodollar system that has benefited the US economy so much over the years.
This system in place since 1973 required that all oil exported around the world was priced in dollars. Today this 43-year-old system that secured the dollar as the world reserve currency and helped to guarantee American prosperity is in terminal decline as nations now trade oil in a variety of currencies and credits.
So what course of action should holders of US dollars consider if I’m right? First I urge American and other foreign investors to take advantage of the short-term strength of the US dollar now while they still can. China and Russia are currently securing large gold reserves, as I believe both nations will eventually back their currencies with a percentage of gold reserves as they challenge the manipulated and paper dollar for world reserve currency and trading status. Therefore my first recommendation for those with US dollars is to buy gold at today’s rock bottom prices when calculated in temporarily strong US dollars.
Second, look at investment opportunities in Canada where the American/Saudi oil price war designed to cripple both Russia and Iran has backfired with the unintended consequences of dramatically weakening the Canadian dollar. Formerly at parity or even priced about the US dollar, it is today priced at 71 cents to the American dollar. If you have American dollars, take advantage of this dramatic but temporary discount.
Consider resort properties in Whistler, BC or historic Quebec City if you like the French influence and benefit from the massive Canadian dollar discount. If you prefer to spend far less, then you might consider vacation ownership by taking a look at the Canadian Intrawest Club. Third, also consider the new Global International Retirement Account if you are looking for ways to reduce jurisdictional risk in markets, bonds and dollar related currencies here.
The temporary weakness in the euro and other currencies also can provide good bargains for dollar investors in Europe, Russia and South America. But make no mistake; the end of the petrodollar will eventually translate into dollar weakness and a possible dollar crash of massive proportion so use the current dollar strength to diversify into other attractive currency and investment alternatives.
In closing, I really hope I’m dead wrong about the risk of a global crash in 2016 but only time will tell. But I’m no prophet and I can’t see into the future nor can anyone else but I understand history, politics and financial markets and what is going on today really scares the Hell out of me.
Baron Rothschild was a very wealthy 18th-century British nobleman and leader of the secretive Rothschild banking family and he is famous for telling investors to “buy when there’s blood in the streets.” While this was probably an excellent idea for someone with his money, power and government protection, I’m not suggesting this as an investment recommendation at all.
Because remember, when there is blood in the streets or panic and severe losses in the markets, fearful western politicians will do anything to survive and prosper except become patriots unlike Putin in Russia. Times like I see coming can mean protecting your wealth and property may be far less important than safeguarding your family. Remember desolation, destruction and tyranny may not remain just in the Middle East.