The other little thing holding up the direct use of the Bomb is that the type of target is typically of no use militarily. After all bombing out a city merely means you have committed genocide, eliminated a potential supply base of real value to yourself and left the enemy who is well distributed very much intact. A Bomb would not have eliminated much of the Iraqi army and would have forced the remainder to set up in penny packets making additional usage obsolete..
The truth is that military targets are too small and best hit with conventional arms. So why would we use a Bomb except to commit genocide and trigger a world war aimed at extirpating whoever produced the outrage.
How long until the next bomb? Why there’s no reason to think that nuclear deterrence works
October 24th, 2015
There would be a 50% chance that the waiting time until the next bomb would be less than the median of this distribution, =19 ln(0.5) = 13.2 years.
If we plot this function (graph on right) shows that it increases with continuously, so the maximum likelihood estimate of is infinity. An infinite wait until the next bomb is perfect deterrence.