Monday, October 17, 2011
Another Brutal Winter
We seem to be heading into another nasty winter this year, although surely not on a par with last year’s over kill. We can not be that unlucky. Yet cold winters do come in cycles if that is what we should call them. While the continental
is catching it, it usually turns out somewhere else is getting away with a very
mild winter. The average may barely
change in terms of the Globe, but a significant cycle exists within that
average that gives us what we actually get. USA
I also added the usual notes here on the sunspot crowd. That is still lagging and it supports a continuing coldness in
I would prepare for another round of cold weather this winter. It certainly feels like an early one on the West Coast which often dodges the worst of it.
Brutal Winter Predicted for
Another La Nina in the
will make it a cold and snowy winter in most parts of the country
By Heather Buchman and AccuWeather | October 6, 2011 | 7
The AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team is predicting another brutally cold and snowy winter for a large part of the country, thanks in large part to La Niña... yet again.
La Niña, a phenomenon that occurs when sea surface temperatures across the equatorial central and eastern Pacific are below normal, is what made last year's winter so awful for the Midwest and Northeast. Monster blizzards virtually shut down the cities of
New York and
winter was one of Chicago 's
snowiest on record. New York City
La Niñas often produce a volatile weather pattern for the
Midwest and Northeast during winter due to the influence
they have on the jet stream. The graphic below shows the position the jet
stream typically takes over the
during La Niña. U.S.
This graphic illustrates the common position the jet stream takes over the
during La Niña. United States
The way the jet stream is expected to be positioned during this winter's La Niña will tend to drive storms through the Midwest and
Great Lakes. Last year, the jet stream steered storms
farther east along the Northeast coast, hammering the Interstate 95 corridor.
Therefore, instead of
New York City
enduring the worst of winter this year, it will likely be . Chicago
"The brunt of the winter season, especially when dealing with cold, will be over the north-central
," stated Paul Pastelok,
expert long-range meteorologist and leader of the AccuWeather.com Long-Range
Forecasting Team. U.S.
Chicago, which endured a monster blizzard last winter, could be one of the hardest-hit cities in terms of both snow and cold in the winter ahead.
AccuWeather.com Long-Range Meteorologist Josh Nagelberg even went so far as to say, "People in
are going to want to move after this winter." Chicago
While winter's worst may not be focused over the major cities of the Northeast this year, the region will not get by unscathed. Pastelok warns there could be a few significant snow and ice storms that could pack a punch.
Ice events could also be a problem for areas farther south from the southern Plains to the southern Appalachians this season, while a significant severe weather threat develops in the
in February. This
threat is extremely concerning for the areas in Lower Mississippi
that were devastated by tornadoes in the spring. Alabama
The West is expected to be split between mild and dry conditions in the Southwest and highly-variable, frequently-changing weather elsewhere.
pulls out of its epic drought this winter are extremely slim with below-normal
precipitation predicted for a large portion of the state. Texas
Brutal Winter Ahead for the Midwest,
Hands down, AccuWeather.com's long-range experts agree that the Midwest and
region will be dealt the worst of winter this year.
Bitterly cold blasts of arctic air are expected to invade the northern Plains, Midwest and
Great Lakes December
through January, while snowfall averages above normal. "A couple of heavy
hitters are possible [during this time]," Pastelok said in relation to the
In terms of both snow and cold, this winter is expected to be the worst in
Full Winter Forecast for the Midwest and
More Monster Snowstorms for the Northeast This Winter?
Overall, this winter is not expected to be as extreme as last winter for the Northeast's major cities. However, there could still be a few snow or ice storms that have a significant impact.
Snowfall is forecast to average near or even slightly above normal in areas south and east of the mountains from
to . Maine
For areas north and west of the
however, snowfall for the season is expected to be much higher. An early, heavy
lake-effect snow season will put northwestern Pennsylvania
into the zone of winter's worst snow and cold, according to the team. New York
Full Winter Forecast for the Northeast
Ice Zone Sets Up Across Southern States; Severe Threat Develops in February
The Long-Range Team expects areas from northeastern
and Oklahoma into Kentucky
to deal with more ice than snow events this winter, especially from early to
Occasionally, icing could affect areas farther east into the western Carolinas and northern parts of
Alabama and . This
would be most likely in January. Georgia
The team also expects a significant risk for severe weather and flood events to develop over the lower
Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee, which were devastated by tornadoes in the
spring, will be extremely sensitive to any severe weather outbreaks. Mississippi
Full Winter Forecast for the Southeast
Stay Parched and Warmer than Normal Texas
"Mild and dry" will unfortunately be the mantra this winter for much of
and the Southwest, a region that desperately needs rain. Texas continues to suffer through the worst
drought in its history. Texas
Precipitation is expected to remain below normal in southern and western
and the interior Southwest this season. "The interior Southwest will be
the driest area of the country through winter," Pastelok said. Texas
Northern and eastern
however, could fair a bit better with higher chances for precipitation as cold
fronts "make it there with ease", as Pastelok stated. The downside to
these higher precipitation chances, however, will be the risk of ice events,
especially from late December into January. Texas
Full Winter Forecast for the Southwest,
and Southern Plains Texas
West to Experience Big Swings This Winter
Apart from the Southwest, people across the western
large swings in weather conditions this winter, according to the Long-Range
December is likely to feature above-normal warmth across much of the entire West. However, from late December into January, the team expects a transition where cold fronts will drop farther south along the West Coast, reaching northern and central
This transition should bring temperatures back near normal, away from the
interior Southwest. California
The famed "Pineapple Express", a phenomenon that occurs when a strong, persistent flow of tropical moisture sets up from the Hawaiian Islands to the West Coast of the U.S., could develop for a time this winter. This phenomenon often leads to excessive rain and incredible snow events.
Full Winter Forecast for the West
The AccuWeather.com 2011-2012 Winter Forecast runs in line with meteorological winter, which begins on Dec. 1 and runs through the end of February. Astronomical winter, on the other hand, begins on Dec. 22 this year and runs through March 20.
Will Sunspots Freeze
Written by Rebecca Terrell
Monday, 10 October 2011 17:32
national weather service are predicting another frigid winter in the Northern
Hemisphere due to sunspot activity. Their recent findings, published in
Sunday's issue of the journal Nature Geoscience, show that low-level solar
radiation is likely responsible for Europe's past three harsh winters and
probably holds the same in store for the upcoming season. Met Office head of
Seasonal to Britain Decadal Prediction Dr.
Adam Scaife bragged, "Our research establishes the link between the solar
cycle and winter climate as more than just coincidence," as reported by
the Daily Mail.
On the contrary, scientists have known about the more-than-coincidental relationship for two centuries. Last month Larry Bell, professor of space architecture at the
, outlined the
history in a Forbes article entitled, "Sorry, But With Global Warming,
It's the Sun, Stupid." In 1801 William Herschel correlated the number of
sunspots to the price of grain in University
of Houston .
German astronomer Heinrich Schwabe proved the 11-year cycle of sunspot activity
in 1843. London
noted the absence of sunspots during the Little Ice Age that spanned the 17th
and 18th centuries. And for the past two decades scientists have been publishing
research based on the satellite record available since 1979 pointing to the
overwhelming influence of solar activity on Earth's temperature. Their research
has been very unpopular with, and routinely ignored by, climate change
Enter the highly-respected European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN), famous for its invention of the World Wide Web in 1989 (much to Al Gore's chagrin). CERN researchers have given Gore something else to stew about. They published an article in the August 25 issue of Nature, detailing their "Cosmics Leaving Outdoor Droplets" (CLOUD) experiment. It found that solar activity significantly impacts Earth's temperatures. More importantly, CERN showed that none of the climate models used to generate dire warnings of global warming takes this sunspot effect into account.
Now the Met Office is making headlines with the same news. Its findings are, like CERN's, based on satellite measurements of solar radiation, and it concluded, as CERN did, that low sunspot activity contributes to colder temperatures. So why is this news drawing attention now, less than two months after it was barely a blip on the media radar?
The significant difference between the two reports is that the Met Office believes solar activity has little bearing on global temperatures in the long run. "Low solar activity, as observed during recent years, drives cold winters in northern Europe and the United States, and mild winters over southern Europe and Canada, with little direct change in globally averaged temperature," reads the report.
In other words, the Met Office uses sunspots to explain severe winters in the midst of an era of alleged man-made global warming. CERN never claimed that sunspots exclusively account for climate change, but lead researcher Dr. Jasper Kirkby blackballed himself and the CLOUD experiment at its launch in 1998 when he predicted that the sun and cosmic rays "will probably be able to account for somewhere between half and the whole of the increase in the Earth's temperature that we have seen in the last century."
Once the CLOUD experiment was complete, CERN Director General Rolf-Dieter Heuer admitted to Die Welt Online that he gagged the scientists involved. "I have asked the colleagues to present the results clearly, but not to interpret them," he said, adding that he thereby hoped to avoid the "highly political arena of the climate change debate."
Nevertheless, Kirkby defended the scientific method in a press release accompanying the CLOUD results. Speaking of atmospheric aerosols known to help drive global climate, he noted, "We've found that the vapours previously thought to account for all aerosol formation in the lower atmosphere can only account for a small fraction of the observations." Kirkby said this "big surprise" underscores the vital importance of discovering "which additional vapours are involved, whether they are largely natural or of human origin, and how they influence clouds. This will be our next job."
He probably won't get much help from the Met Office, as its website unquestioningly attributes global warming to human activities. But perhaps its new "discovery" will improve the weather service's poor reputation for winter forecasting. In each of the past three years the Met Office predicted mild winters, but Mother Nature broke severe weather records every time.
Science editor Dr. David Whitehouse offers little hope for an improvement in the weather service's forecasting abilities, however. Reporting for the Global Warming Policy Foundation, he said solar activity this year is back up to 2004 levels when the Northern Hemisphere experienced mild winters. "So, if anything, the logic behind this particular piece of research points towards the Winter of 2011 being a mild one.