This topic has conflicting
interpretations all over the place. From
here it appears that the Arctic atmosphere has been warmer for a full five
years. Yet at the same time we are duly
informed by the Navy that ice thickness has largely recovered to its preceding
thickness. Generally all other evidence
appears to support a warmer Arctic and progressive
ice loss. The anomaly is the Navy’s
report and it is the one I want to actually accept.
Other climate issues outside the
arctic appear to fit inside pretty conventional expectations and a rare record
does get broken. A jet stream shift made
life miserable throughout the US
The Arctic
is a different matter. We had been led to believe that a substantial amount of
the arctic ice mass had been removed in the past three decades. The question was why?
The best answer appears to be a
modest increase in the influx of warm Gulf Stream
water. Evidence of such possibilities
abound in the geological record and is reasonable as an aftermath of the
obvious down shift precipitating the little ice age of around 1700 AD.
Further work suggests we are
entering the mid section of a thousand year current driven heat cycle.
Thus a warming Arctic
is reasonable. Yet the apparent ice
reversal is contraindicative. For
reasons as yet not understood, it may simply not be real. Or the currents may well have changed again.
The sea level prognostications here are rubbish.
Record Arctic warming to boost sea level rise
by Staff Writers
Record warming in the Arctic over the past six years will substantially contribute to a global sea level rise of up to 1.6 meters by 2100, according to a study published in
"Surface air temperatures in the Arctic since 2005 have been
higher than for any five-year period since measurements began around
1880," the Arctic Monitoring and
Assessment Programme (AMAP) said.
"In the future, global sea level is projected to rise by 0.9 to
1.6 meters (2.95 to 5.25 feet) by 2100 and the loss of ice from Arctic
glaciers, ice caps, and the Greenland Ice
Sheet will make a substantial contribution to this," the authors of the
study said, stressing, however "that high uncertainty surrounds estimates
of future global sea level."
The melting of polar region ice could have disastrous effects on low
altitude coastal regions, including in faraway regions.
Temperatures are rising twice as quickly in the Arctic as on the rest
of the planet, and "in the future, average autumn-winter temperatures in
the Arctic are projected to increase even
more," the authors said.
The hike would amount to 3.0 to 7.0 degrees Celsius (5.4 to 12.6 degrees
Fahrenheit) by 2080, they said.
"And the Arctic Ocean is
predicted to be nearly ice free in summer during this century. Likely within
the next 30 to 40 years," they added.
The full report will be presented at a meeting of Arctic Council member
countries the United States ,
Canada , Russia , Norway ,
Denmark , Sweden , Finland
and Iceland in the Greenland capital Nuuk on May 12.
The AMAP was set up in 1991 by the eight Arctic Council members.
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