I noticed an item in the press about a scientist questioning the existence of the Global Warming Phenomena.. He was quite rightly challenging the models used and the shaky logic extrapolating so called trends into the future.
I also do not feel comfortable predicting the global climate over the next ten years let alone the next 100. I anticipate only that I will be surprised. I have already stated earlier that the link between CO2 and a a global heat wave is problematic and certainly should not be relied on.
We can rely on the fact that the CO2 in the environment is increasing.
What about Global Warming? There we have two compelling arguments. The increase in the growing season in the high Arctic is one compelling reason. It could not be clearer. The second is the sixty percent decrease in the thickness of permanent sea ice in the past sixty years. This actually is huge.
What few have understood is that the decline was not linear. We did not take any measurements over that duration. However, any theoretical scenario is going to require that the bulk of the ice was removed in the past twenty years. And that means, boys and girls, that the balance will be removed inside the next twenty years and probably a lot sooner if the tail end naturally flushes out like a spring breakup.
Of course, this does not make the Arctic ice free. It means that we will have winter sea ice that breaks up and disperses every year. And the Arctic will remain as a cooling engine for the climate. We may have a September shipping season over the pole!
The fact is that we have had a warmer Arctic for the past twenty years, very similar to the high in the early fifteenth century. I personally hope it is sustained, but I would be uncomfortable in making book on it. By the way, melting sea ice will have no effect on sea levels for those alarmists out there.
I also do not feel comfortable predicting the global climate over the next ten years let alone the next 100. I anticipate only that I will be surprised. I have already stated earlier that the link between CO2 and a a global heat wave is problematic and certainly should not be relied on.
We can rely on the fact that the CO2 in the environment is increasing.
What about Global Warming? There we have two compelling arguments. The increase in the growing season in the high Arctic is one compelling reason. It could not be clearer. The second is the sixty percent decrease in the thickness of permanent sea ice in the past sixty years. This actually is huge.
What few have understood is that the decline was not linear. We did not take any measurements over that duration. However, any theoretical scenario is going to require that the bulk of the ice was removed in the past twenty years. And that means, boys and girls, that the balance will be removed inside the next twenty years and probably a lot sooner if the tail end naturally flushes out like a spring breakup.
Of course, this does not make the Arctic ice free. It means that we will have winter sea ice that breaks up and disperses every year. And the Arctic will remain as a cooling engine for the climate. We may have a September shipping season over the pole!
The fact is that we have had a warmer Arctic for the past twenty years, very similar to the high in the early fifteenth century. I personally hope it is sustained, but I would be uncomfortable in making book on it. By the way, melting sea ice will have no effect on sea levels for those alarmists out there.
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